The Balancing acts: Afghanistan, India and strategies for managing Pakistan-Russia engagement in the region

Abstract

The period from 2001 to 2021 saw India establishing robust ties with Afghanistan through significant
economic aid and infrastructure development, with a recorded cost of $3 billion, claimed at ensuring Afghan
stability. Pakistan, however, viewed these growing India-Afghanistan relations with suspicion, fearing
encirclement and increased Indian influence in the region, specifically against its national interests. In
response, Pakistan, with support from Russia, engaged with the Taliban to restore their government in
Afghanistan by sponsoring peace dialogues with the assistance of China and Iran, thereby seeking to
counter US-India collaborative strategies aimed at regional dominance. Hence, within the theoretical
frameworks of balance of power, classical neorealism and hegemonic stability theory; this study explores
several key aspects of this geopolitical relationship, such as, the impact of Indian investment on the joint
interests of Russia and Pakistan, the nature of these joint interests, and whether their policies in Afghanistan
can be considered balancing acts against India-US ties. Additionally, it examines potential future policies
of Russia and Pakistan in light of expected Indian efforts to reassert influence in the region. By utilizing
qualitative analysis of diplomatic communications and policy documents, this study draws on previous
literature including works by Shuja Nawaz (2020), Ren Mu (2021) and Kirill Krivosheev (2024) to
contextualize the shifting dynamics. As post-15/8/2021 Afghan politics reflect the undermining of India’s
strategies for the region, this study also highlights the joint interests of Pakistan and Russia and their
balancing acts to ensure that the interim government of the Afghan Taliban aligns with broader regional interests.